Friday, March 31, 2006

Dismal Rethug 2006 Prospects Delight Countryside

In a WaPo comment on the top 20 close House races, quoth RMill: "The impact of Abramhoff and further developments in Iraq could shift this to a more decisive Democratic year. That remains to be seen."

Yep, those shoes have yet to drop. But.

No way any good news comes out of Abramoff for the Rethugs. Unless it's that there are no collateral indictments of Rethug Congresscritters based on his testimony prior to the elections. (No Dems will be indicted because Abramoff never gave a single Dem a single dollar. Tribes did, he didn't.) Justice Attorneys may be forced into a go-slow mode by delayed or withheld higher-up approvals, but it strains probability to think political interference with the prosecutorial process can wholly succeed in putting off the impact of the lobbying scandal for eight whole months.

And no way there is any actual good news out of Iraq ever again. Their governmentt structure is a shell solely propped up by Administration hot air. Massacres, executions, maimings, roadside bombings of US troops and Iranian sectarians -- you can't defend against that stuff unless you had put in enough troops to begin with.

Either factor alone would be a multiplier for Dem chances that cancels out the House Rethug financing advantage. The one left over then translates into the equivalent of a country-wide financial lead for the House Dems (virtual money a/k/a the tide of history.)

In the Senate, a Rethug defeat is already being forecast by the lobby, which has contributed so heavily to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee that it has outraised its Rethug equivalent for some months, and seems likely to do so for the rest of the campaign cycle as well. The lobby is paid by corporate America to know who's going to win before they actually do so, and to bet accordingly. Those bets are not just trending Dem, they are loudly proclaiming a Dem Senate takeover.

The Lying, Spying, Torture, Corruption and Incompetence Administration and its tame Congress might still survive -- especially if they manage to outlaw sources of Dem money while protecting their own -- though even their fearmongering is growing feeble.

But based on current trends, a Senate switchover and a 5-7 seat Dem House gain look pretty much like a floor, not a ceiling.

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